By Buddy Bayer, chief operating officer, Colt Technology Services
Twenty-five years ago, the Millennium Bug threatened to put a dampener on everyone’s turn-of-the-century celebrations. Also known as Y2K, the bug was an issue inherent to computer systems and was expected to cause major problems as the year ticked over from 1999 to 2000. Thankfully, patches, fixes and updates set in place by hardworking IT teams meant that most systems were absolutely fine, and the threat didn’t materialise – at least, not with the severity or scale that was feared. Since then, our world has faced a range of environmental, technological, socioeconomic and geopolitical threats. Although none has been quite on a tangent with Y2K, some experts think that could be about to change.
Y2Q, also known as Q-Day, is thought to be a pivotal point expected to happen in the next five years, at which quantum computers become powerful enough to break through traditional encryption methods. This means data that is currently protected by today’s robust encryption techniques – companies’ confidential information, for example, and your personal data such as banking details and medical records – would no longer be protected. Information that was previously secure would not be safe, and critical systems would be at risk, vulnerable to quantum hackers. I write ‘would’ and not ‘will’ with intention: this is a risk, among many others that we face and overcome. Y2K was exactly that, but there’s a marked difference in how we live our lives now, compared to 25 years ago which compounds the risk posed by Q-Day – digitalisation. For example, in 2000:
- Mobile phones were used for voice calls and text messages – and Nokia dominated the market
- The first iPhone was seven years away; the iPad ten years away
- We accessed the Internet using dial-up
- The earliest MP3 players were launched although we predominantly listened to music in CD, cassette or vinyl format
- Amazon’s marketplace launched in 2000, but we generally shopped for goods in real-life; we paid money into our bank accounts at our local branch – and we connected with friends in person, on the phone or by email, at least until Friends Reunited emerged later that year
My purpose behind listing these points isn’t to take a nostalgic look back at when life was a little simpler, but more to demonstrate the incredible transition to digital since then. While the Millennium Bug would have had an impact if had been as powerful as expected, it wouldn’t have had the far-reaching consequences that it would today. To put it into greater context, globally in 2000 the number of internet-connected devices was estimated at around 200 million, across business and homes. Now, it’s estimated at over 22 billion. The average household has 21 connected devices, according to research from Deloitte, while businesses can have thousands of connected devices. Many of these devices use encryption to protect data so, potentially, the risk to the data gathered by these devices would be vast.
Quantum and the huge opportunities
Let’s not overshadow the opportunities quantum presents: its complex problem-solving abilities are immense. It will solve problems we don’t even know exist. It will fundamentally transform industries including pharmaceuticals, manufacturing and finance; it will transform the discovery of medicines and make lifesaving medical breakthroughs; and it could help us solve environmental issues and contribute to sustainable living. While AI and quantum were flagged together in the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2024, AI – not quantum – was the technology that dominated both the report and conversations, in homes and board rooms.
A new directive from the UK’s National Cyber Security Agency
March of this year saw a directive from the UK’s cybersecurity agency which may prove to mark a turning point in the quantum journey. The agency – the National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) – urged organisations to guard their systems against quantum hackers by 2035, specifically as the prospect of breakthroughs in powerful computing threaten digital encryption. The NCSC issued a framework for larger businesses such as energy and transport providers, with a recommended timeline to adhere to so they are ‘quantum secure’:
- By 2028, organisations should have set migration goals and a plan; they should have completed a ‘full discovery exercise’ and infrastructure audit to explore and determine what systems, processes and hardware should be updated
- By 2031, organisations should have carried out the highest priority migration activities which can be refined as they go along, and have a detailed plan in place for completion
- By 2035, the migration to post quantum cryptography (or PQC) should be completed across systems, services and products
The ten-year timeline is helpful, but industry experts suggest the risk is likely to come sooner, with the advanced pace of technology and huge investment from tech giants in quantum technologies such as Google’s Willow chip.
The good news
While the risk remains, we need to be able to face a quantum future with optimism and not fear. We need to be ready to maximise, and benefit from, the incredible opportunities quantum presents. The good news is that some of the brightest minds and greatest talents in tech innovation are already laser-focused on finding solutions. Quantum-secure encryption, for example, safeguards data from the risks posted by quantum computers in deciphering classical encryption keys. It’s something we’ve been exploring here at Colt, with some incredible partners across the industry in a trailblazing pilot.
The World Economic Forum expressed my perspective perfectly with this headline for its 2024 Global Risks Report: the risks are growing but so is our capacity to respond. And while we have the technology, innovation and talent to anticipate and respond to risk, we can face a quantum future with confidence.
Find out how Colt can help secure your business from quantum risk and read our white paper here.
Recent articles
What's your goal today?
1. Connect to the Colt network
Our network directly connects 32,000+ buildings, with millions more through our extensive worldwide partners, powering global businesses with high bandwidth requirements. Find out if you're Colt connected now.
2. Learn more about digital infrastructure
We've worked with experts to build hundreds of guides, whitepapers and blogs across a range of technology & infrastructure topics, as well as videos, webinars & lightning talks. Find out more about them below.
3. Explore our customer success stories
We work with global businesses to deliver world-class connectivity solutions, with a range of available professional & managed services to help you get exactly the right fit for your business. Read more about some of our customers' success stories.
